Obviously, the Union had a lot more advantages than the Confederacy did, such as a much bigger population. However, just because an army has more people does not generally mean more wins.
A crucial thing that is needed in order to win is great generals. The Confederacy had arguably the greatest general of the war, Robert E. Lee, as well as other experienced leaders, unlike the Union's mistake-prone generals. The Confederacy's soldiers knew how to handle a gun and also how to fight. In my opinion, it is just as important to have a few experienced soldiers rather than a lot of non-experinced soldiers.
Another factor that could help the Confederate soldiers was more motivation and home field advantage. Knowledge of the territory is very useful for knowing shortcuts, locations, and how to employ guerilla warfare to their advantage. Also, being more determined than a Union army who really did not know what they were fighting for was another slight advantage they had. The South was basically fighting for their economy, unlike the North who really had nothing to lose. This was essentially the same scenario with the Revelutionary War, in which U.S. with more motivation won.
Finally, the Confederates still had the economy to trade with foreign countries. Their cotton production would help them gain money and potentially allies with countries such as Britain and France. No matter how bad it looks for one side, it is impossible to count them out because anything could happen that could change the tide of the war.
Yes, I agree that more people in your army does not mean more wins. But, it does mean more fire power and more bodies to shoot down. With the Confederate forces numbers, it would be harder to kill more people from the Union army if their army almost outnumbers the whole Confederate Nation population. And good detail on how the home field advantage, helps the Confederates with their strategy of guerilla warfare.
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