I think that even if the confederacy won, it wouldn't effect the outcome of the war much because if they still did Pickett's Charge, they still would've lost many leaders and soldiers they couldn't replace. The only effect losing the battle may have had on the Union would be that they lose morale, but even then Lincoln could still draft soldiers or attract them with money, so the army wouldn't suffer. One thing I'm sure is that once the war was made to be about slavery, France and Britain would never have helped the Confederacy when they had just abolished slavery. And as for Lincoln, I think it's the same thing. Once the war became a fight over slavery, he couldn't just leave the South alone and let them have slaves. The Union had already said it was against slavery and if they took it back, it would make them seem weak. Lincoln also still couldn't stop the war because of all the reasons as before: it would make the Union seem weak, showing how their type of government wouldn't work out and it would let the states think that they could secede whenever they weren't pleased with something the government did.
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